Aluminum market analysis
The aluminum metal reached its highest price for the past 13 years on Tuesday, February 8. Whereas, the closing of the Chinese and Europe smelting units with this metal deficiency in the market has led to the price increase. According to a Bloomberg report, Goldman Sachs has changed the price forecast of metal aluminum to 4000 dollars (tons) in 2022.
The price of aluminum on the London metal exchange got to 3236 dollars (tons) with a 3.3% increase on Tuesday, February 8. This number exceeded the price peak in October 2021 and reached a new record in the last 13 years.
Aluminum metal has had the best performance among base metals since the beginning of this year until now. An optimistic view indicates that the price of this metal rises to 3380 dollars (tons) in the face of metal shortage in the market.
Also, the price of some key commodities such as nickel and petroleum has increased since the beginning of February. Consumption has simultaneously increased with due attention to the coronavirus epidemic, but the metal inventory has not been keeping pace with demand.
Goldman Sachs Group has increased the aluminum 12 months price forecast to 4000 dollars (tons). This group thinks that the causes of the probable increase in aluminum price are power supply disruption in China and Europe and also a drop in production of this metal.
According to two market analyzers in the Goldman Sachs Group, the aluminum market will confront with rising prices over 2022 regarding inventory shortage in China and outside China.
Aluminum inventory in the market has reached its lowest level since 2018 until now. For this reason, the price of aluminum has increased by 13% from the beginning of 2022 until now.
Due to the energy dilemma of smelting units in Europe and fake news about the coronavirus disease outbreaks in China, buyers rapidly have taken out aluminum from storerooms. This work has affected the price increase.
According to one expert of Goldman Sachs, a distinctive feature of aluminum physical deficiency is that it covers quickly the whole market and causes price fluctuation.
Bloomberg commodity index reached its maximum value in February. Based on the Bloomberg report, it has more than doubled its minimum value in these four years and the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak.
Venue yaou, senior analyst of ING bank commodity says in this regard: we are currently witnessing a strong storm in the aluminum market. European energy crisis and conditions in china have limited inventory of this metal in the market. Investors have predicted rising aluminum prices and copper price reductions right now.
